The End of an Era: Time to Blow Up the Big Three

 

by Dave Walsh

The Celtics’ record currently stands at 15-17, which leaves them as the 8^th seed in a top-heavy Eastern conference. And as the March 15^th NBA trade deadline looms, Celtics GM Danny Ainge is left with a difficult decision: Let the Big Three make another run at a title or “blow up” the team and begin building for the future.

The C’s have badly stumbled to the All-Star break, losing 7 of their last 8 games, which include very disappointing performances against lowly teams like the Raptors and the Pistons. With the résumé that the Celtics have built in the first half of the season, it’s clear that this team cannot win a championship with the pieces that they have and it doesn’t look like they’re a “one or two pieces away” type of team.

If the Celtics don’t make some moves at the trade deadline, they’ll end up getting stuck in basketball purgatory, where championships and lottery picks are virtually non-existent. Right now, this Celtics team is built to make trades, and in order to be a contender this season and beyond, the Celtics may need to try and make a bigger move.

Father time has arrived in Boston

The most glaring issues for the Celtics right now are their age and their lack of solid frontcourt players. Right now, the Celtics’ frontcourt is made up of old and injured players like KG, O’Neal, and Wilcox, and young, limited role players like Bass, Johnson, and Stiemsma. This collection of players makes it difficult for the C’s to match-up with any halfway decent frontcourt players and, at times, has forced Doc to implement a zone defense. Also, through the first half of the season, the Celtics’ opponents have out-rebounded them by 101 total rebounds, which has led to more possessions and more second chance points.

The Celtics’ roster doesn’t have many high-impact role players, and chances are, if a trade happens, it will be for one (or more) of the starters. That, or it will be for a handful of the C’s expiring contract players. Here’s a quick look at the potential trade value of The Big Four.

Rajon Rondo (Trade Value = High, Trade Possibility = Medium)

Rondo is by no means the best point guard in the NBA, but he is considered by most to be in the top five and he is currently having the best season of his career by averaging 14.8 points, 9.5 assists, and 4.9 rebounds per game. Despite his outburst during the Detroit game, Rondo probably has the greatest trade value of any player on the C’s roster.

Does Danny see Rondo as a franchise player
or a trading chip?

However, I’d be surprised to see the Celtics trade Rondo unless they were able to swing a multi-team deal that landed the Celtics the solid F/C they need and a good point guard that is capable of running the Boston offense effectively, which isn’t something Bradley, Dooling, or Moore can do.

Paul Pierce (Trade Value = Medium, Trade Possibility = Low)

Although Pierce is having an off year, he is still a talented swingman that is capable of putting up big numbers, and he could be a nice addition to a team that is looking to increase their fire power for the playoffs.

However, with Pierce being 34 and having two more years on his contract of at least $15 million, the only teams that I could see being interested are teams that are one or two pieces away from contending for a championship and who already won’t have enough money coming off the books to make a run at either Howard or Williams.

Ray Allen (Trade Value = High, Trade Possibility = Medium/High)

Next to Rondo, Ray is probably the player on the C’s roster with the most trade value and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ray get shipped by the trade deadline. At 36 years old, Ray is the oldest member of the Big Three but his shooting ability is still extremely valuable as it helps stretch the floor.

Although Ray’s points, assists, and rebounds are all below his career averages, he’s currently shooting a career-high .485 from three, making him 3^rd in the league in 3-point percentage.

Another thing that makes Ray a valuable trading chip is his expiring $10 million contract, which runs out at the end of the season.

Kevin Garnett (Trade Value = Medium/Low, Trade Possibility = Medium/High)

The decline of Kevin Garnett has been sharp and very obvious over these past few years. Garnett is currently 35 years old with bad knees and he’s in the middle of one the worst statistical seasons of his career, averaging 14.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, which are all well below his career averages of 19.4 ppg, 10.7 rpg, and 4.1 apg. KG also missed his first All-Star game since his injury-shortened ‘98-‘99 season.

Over the years, Garnett’s role has shifted from being the franchise player for the Timberwolves to being the defensive anchor for the C’s. Garnett’s presence definitely still has an impact as the C’s are ranked 3^rd in opponent points per game at 88.5, but when you watch him play, you can tell that his age has caught up with him.

Aside from his defensive abilities and influence, the most valuable thing about KG is his expiring $21 million contract.

As the trade deadline approaches, the rest of the C’s roster looks very attractive due to the fact that nearly every player, with the exception Brandon Bass, Avery Bradley, and JuJuan Johnson, has a contract that will expire at the end of the year.

We may see several teams try and collect the C’s expiring contracts but I doubt we’ll see any significant players offered for them, but that’s fine, as I think draft picks would be much more useful considering the depth of the upcoming draft.

Overall, at the most I think that we may see the Celtics make one large to medium-sized deal and perhaps one or two smaller deals where they trade players for cash or draft picks. They can’t afford to sit on their hands and watch the “Big 3” era expire.