by Rick Valente
In Dave Walsh's most recent article on Sports Chowda, he came to the conclusion that this team does not have what it takes to win another ring, and that it is time for Danny Ainge to start making moves to set this team up for the post-Big-Three era. Despite having several big-money contracts coming off the board, and a couple of first round picks in next year's draft, it will still be a daunting challenge for Ainge to rebuild a roster from close to scratch. Can Danny do it? Can he turn one championship era over into another without taking the 20-year grace period the Celtics suffered through after 1986? I say yes, and I will tell you exactly how the wily Mr. Ainge can do it. But first, you must consider some key things before we start building the 2012 Boston Celtics:
1. Paul Pierce must be traded this year before he becomes $15+ million of cap space taken up by a fourth or fifth option for the next 2+ years.
Right now, Pierce is the best scoring option the Celtics have, and that is why they are far from title contenders and averaging less than 90 PPG. Put Pierce on a team like the Heat, Thunder, or Bulls, Pierce becomes the third option at best. He is also 34 years old, and will continue his decline at the hands of father time. For a rebuilding team (since we have already established this isn't a championship team, it's only logical to consider them a rebuilding team) you really don't want a quarter of your cap space taken up by a declining star who is holding onto All-Star status by a thread. However, there are some teams out there who would love to add him as a piece this year, and could use his playoff experience, leadership, and scoring abilities to push them from a long shot to a legitimate contender. Teams won't give up a ton for him, but they will take on his salary, which is an absolute must for Danny to get off of the Celtics' books. Nobody is going to want to trade for him next year. If they don't deal him this year, he will take up the aforementioned quarter of our cap space for two more years, making it virtually impossible to put together a contender.
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| It would be sad to see Pierce go after fourteen years. |
2. Paul Pierce has a no trade clause in his contract, and won't give up retiring as a Celtic unless he has a legitimate shot to win another championship elsewhere.
You can forget about shipping Pierce to a place like Minnesota or even Philadelphia. They have good up-and-coming rosters, but Pierce won't want to live there as he finishes out his NBA career. You'd have to find a borderline contender in a decent location for Pierce to even sniff at the thought of leaving here. Seriously, the man was stabbed eleven times in his rookie year and still wanted to stay in Boston. He isn't going to move for cheese steaks or 10,000 lakes.
3. Boston is not going to get Dwight Howard or Deron Williams. So just stop. Right now.
Can we please be realistic about this, people? Boston is cold during basketball season, we have extremely high taxes, our city has a lot less to do than a New York or Los Angeles, and our team is on the decline. I love Boston with an undying passion, and we love our Celtics here with the fire of a thousand suns, but guys like Howard and Williams will be adored wherever they go and won't want to sign here. They want to build their brand and be the biggest fish in the biggest pond. I love our pond, but it's not the biggest pond. If Boston is going to build another championship team, they are going to have to tie guys up before they become big stars, either through the draft or signing younger, improving free-agents.
4. The Celtics are going to have to improve through restricted free agents, and probably by overpaying them to a degree.
The bad news is that after Howard and Williams, the unrestricted free agent pool sucks. The good news is that there is a pretty decent restricted free agent pool. The other bad news is that teams can match any offer you make to their restricted free agent, meaning you are going to have to overpay in most scenarios. The other good news is that the Celtics will have a ton of cap space next year to overpay for those RFA's. Basically, you are more than well prepared for a less than ideal situation when it comes to acquiring players through free agency.
Considering these four things, you begin to see the complexities it takes for any team to build a winner from a non-winner. It takes creativity, knowledge, and certainly luck to succeed in turning the ship around. The scenario that I am about to paint out follows all of the rules of the NBA salary cap and collective bargaining agreement. I also believe that the trades and signings are realistic for both parties, not just ideal for the Celtics. I think that through two trades, two free agent signings, and three re-signings, the Celtics could be set up to contend in 2012 and beyond. Let's get started.
The Two Trades:
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| Anderson is one of the biggest breakout players of this season. |
Celtics trade Rajon Rondo and Chris Wilcox to Orlando for Ryan Anderson and Jameer Nelson
I genuinely believe that trading for Rondo would be a huge step for Orlando in keeping Dwight Howard. He's the flashy, fast, pass-first guard that would work perfectly with Howard's style of play, not to mention being a skilled defender. Wilcox won't bring what Anderson brought to the power forward position, but the upgrade in point guard certainly makes up for the loss at power forward. The Celtics would get a proven starting point guard in Jameer Nelson, as well as a 23-year-old power forward who is coming into his own, can shoot the three, and can rebound. Ryan Anderson is definitely a player that could be an All-Star as soon as next year, especially with the extra looks he will be getting on the Celtics as opposed to the Magic. The Celtics have made it obvious that they don't want to build their franchise around Rondo, and the Magic have made it clear that they want to build their franchise around Dwight Howard. This trade puts both teams in good position to accomplish those goals.
The Celtics trade Paul Pierce to the Portland Trail Blazers for Gerald Wallace and Raymond Felton
The Blazers are a good team that is only three games out of a home series in the playoffs. Trading for a scoring veteran like Paul Pierce to play with LaMarcus Aldridge and a deep supporting cast could definitely allow them to contend in the West. It wouldn't make them as good as Oklahoma City, but they would definitely be able to compete with the Clippers, Lakers, and Mavericks. In other words, they would have their hat in the ring, despite not having the best roster in the playoffs, much like the Mavericks of last year. I think Pierce would consider accepting this move and go to a quality city like Portland who loves their basketball. The Blazers get their All-Star with a championship pedigree, the Celtics get Pierce off of their books. Once again, both teams gain something useful.
The Two Free Agent Signings:
Just as a side note, I aimed a little high on both the re-signings and free agent signings. It is very hard to sign a player at a discounted rate, and it is very easy to overpay a player. Aiming high compensates for that reality.
Celtics sign RFA OJ Mayo to 3 years/$24 million
The Grizzlies will probably want to keep Mayo, but I don't think that they will pay $8 million per year to do so. They have a ton of money locked up long-term for Gay, Randolph, Gasol and Conley, so it might make sense to sign Mayo under the Bird exception, I just think $8 million is too rich for their blood. Again, the Celtics would definitely be overpaying, but they can afford to.
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| It would cost a lot to get Hibbert. |
Celtics sign RFA Roy Hibbert to 4 years/$60 million
This will be the big gamble for Danny Ainge that will either blow up in his face, or earn the Celtics a franchise center for the next half-decade. Under the new CBA rules, the maximum salary teams can offer a player who has been in the league for less than six years (Hibbert is in his fourth year) is one quarter of the salary cap. They can also only sign the player for four years, unless he is re-signing with his current team. So basically, this contract is the best contract Ainge can offer to Hibbert, and the best contract that anybody except for Indiana can offer him. I don't think Indy matches this offer because he currently isn't a max-salary player. However, at 7'2" and only 26 years-old, Hibbert's scoring and rebounding have significantly improved every season he has been in the league. He made the All-Star team this year, and plays a position that historically takes the most time to grow into. If I still haven't sold you, think of this: Would you rather pay $15 million for a young player who just made his first All-Star team in Hibbert, or pay $15 million for an aging player in Paul Pierce who just made his last All-Star game?
The Three Re-signings:
Celtics re-sign RFA Ryan Anderson to 4 years/$32 million
The Celtics will be able to give Anderson a qualifying offer of about $3.2 million for next season, but the young, breakout forward will certainly receive an offer from another team that exceeds this total. Anderson will be a key piece to this team moving forward, and it would be worth locking him up for the long-term.
Celtics re-sign Mickael Pietrus to 1 year/$1.8 million
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| Allen's conditioning has kept his career alive. |
Pietrus is struggling for the Celtics currently, but when he is effective, he can play tremendous defense and hit the three. He could be a key bench piece for a Celtics playoff run. He could definitely fill a James Posey-type role down the stretch. He took the minimum this year because he got bought out, and you won't have to pay him much more than that in the offseason.
Celtics exercise Bird Rights to sign Ray Allen to 2 years/$16 million
The Celtics will be able to go over the cap to keep Ray Allen, allowing them the money to acquire all of the players above. Ray will continue to start, but will certainly split minutes with Mayo, which ensures the Celtics will always have a scorer on the court at the shooting guard position.
also...
Gerald Wallace exercises $11.5 million option for 2012
It's not really a resigning, but I think Wallace will stay put in Boston. He probably won't get more than that in the market, and if he does, it won't be in as good of a city/situation as Boston.
Celtics don't re-sign Raymond Felton
I just don't see the Celtics paying the money Felton will be looking for in free agency. They will let him go.
The Final Product:
After putting in all this hard work, here would be what we have so far:
| Position | Player |
| PG | Jameer Nelson |
| SG | Ray Allen |
| SF | Gerald Wallace |
| PF | Ryan Anderson |
| C | Roy Hibbert |
| BENCH | |
| PF | Brandon Bass |
| SG | OJ Mayo |
| PF/C | JaJuan Johnson |
| PG/SG | E'Twaun Moore |
With this Celtics team, they aren't weak at any position (like they are this year at center), and their best players are young, improving, and signed long-term. To fill out the bench, the Celtics would still have their mid-level exception, where they can sign a player to the league's average salary even if they go over the cap, and they have two first-round draft picks. The Celtics have cards to play with, they just need to discard the right ones and pick the right ones up in order to have a winning hand in 2012 and beyond.
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